Thursday, November 12, 2015

11.12.15: SEC HOME HOLIDAY WEEKEND 3 of 4 PREVIEW: THIS IS IT.


CAN YOU FEEEEEEL IT?  I can.


There is so much to cover right now.  A lot.  I can't even think coherent thoughts right now.  I'm shaking with anticipation.

As Austin Golding mentioned in his Prediction Wednesday, this is what CFB fans live for.  This is it.  A chance at an elite team in our backyard, in our Torture Chamber.  A chance to ruin the current playoff bracket and shake up the college football landscape.  A chance to watch Nick Saban throw a fit.  A chance to demoralize Alabama.  A chance.....a CHANCE.....at Atlanta.  However small.

Throw away the odds.  Engage passion.  THIS IS IT.

Now, before I run through a wall, a few reminders about this weekend:

1. GAMEDAY AGENDA:

Schedule:
7:30 a.m. - WAKE UP!  IT'S GAMEDAY IN STARKVILLE WITH SEC NATION 
8:00 a.m. - Tailgate setup begins.  CALLING ALL ALPHAS
8:30 a.m. - Breakfast and booze is served. Arrive at the tailgate. SEC Nation broadcast starts. 
11:00 a.m. - Start to FEEEEEEL IT.
12:00 noon - LUNCH IS SERVED
12:30 p.m. - DAWGS WALK.
2:00 p.m. - HIGH FIVES, CHEST BUMPS, ASS SLAPS as we head to The Torture Chamber
2:30 p.m. - Give Everything.
TBD after game - CLUB KANG?
TBD after a potential CLUB KANG event: SHARE THE WORKLOAD by helping to break down the tailgate and clean up.  

PLEASE HELP US RESPECT THE JUNCTION AND DO YOUR PART.

2. THIS WEEKEND: IT'S TIME....TO BRANG THA KANG:


I will personally be honoring the Kang (his playing career under Bear Bryant, and his coaching career at Mississippi State) by vesting up this weekend.  I encourage anyone and everyone to wear a sweater vest with me (although I'm fully mentally prepared to be the only one doing so).  But keep in mind:  THE WEATHER IS PERFECT FOR SWEATER VESTS Y'ALL.  High of 61, Low of 39.  Partly Sunny.

3. IT'S A GIGAPIXEL GAME!


Don't miss out on the gigapixel.  I love it when they do these.  They say they will be taking it sometime during the 1st quarter (probably during a TV timeout).  Make sure you are in your seats when they take it.  They will most likely take it from midfield.  Bonus points if you are throwing the TEETH hand gesture when we scroll through it next week.  Or picking your nose.  Either way.

4. REMEMBER THE TEETH,  BRING THE PAIN IN THE STANDS.  LET'S GO BAY-BEEEE!!!  I personally have this weirdly good feeling about this weekend.  Strangely confident in our student athletes and coaching staff.  Let's get it on.

5. PRED WED by Austin Golding:

*Prediction Wednesday*
If you are a college football fan you live for weeks like these. The times you have a chance for your team to impact the landscape of college football are few and far between for most fans. Alabama fans are accustomed to this position but the vast majority of spectators are more times than not on the outside looking in. Sure Mississippi State gets a shot at Bama every year, but up to this point we haven't fielded many teams that have had a realistic shot at getting the win. This year we get to host the Tide and are armed with the best player in school history playing the best football of his college career. 

We catch Alabama fresh off a physical game with their closest rival. Alabama has reloaded with another elite running back but has one of the worst quarterbacks Nick Saban has had to coach around since he has been in Tuscaloosa. Just like last year the Bulldogs still have everything to play for not just a chance to knock off the Tide. A win this week would rock the college football world. All eyes will be on Starkvegas Saturday afternoon.

Last week in Missouri Mississippi State took care of an obviously distracted football team. Even though the Bulldogs made a mess of them, the Missouri defense is a good unit. Mississippi State came out and got the W in the rain, on the road and with everything to lose on the line. Once again Dak showed why he should be in the Heisman discussion. When you complete 27 out of 40 in a thunderstorm for 303 yards and 4 TD's you win ballgames. Defensively Mississippi State didn't have a let down. Missouri is awful on offense. 

That won't be the case this week. The only damage they did was on the ground and right up the middle. That's worrisome coming into a week that forces us to try and stop a 6'3" 242 pound running back who dropped 210 yards against a talented LSU defense. Mississippi State is 10th in the SEC and 68th nationally against the run giving up an average of 168 yards per contest on the ground.
There are very few statistics that tell a story contrary to what is already known about Alabama. They are very good against the run and that feels like an understatement to type. Alabama has the number one rushing defense in all of college football. They allow just 75 yards a game and 2.5 per carry. Taking a step back and looking at their defense as a whole they only give up 4.15 yards per play. Yes that includes passing. Compare that to the last two Alabama teams to win national titles (2011 and 2012) that allowed 3.32 and 4.18 yards per play respectively and this is right up there as one of the best Alabama defensive units of all time.

If you are Mississippi State fan you have to feel confident riding a statistically eye popping 4 game winning streak. I don't want to pour cold water on those good vibes but those 4 teams are 18-19 so far this season with the best opponent being La Tech at a surprisingly dominant 7-3. That stretch has done a lot for the Bulldogs confidence but lets face it, we haven't played anyone even close what is coming to Starkville Saturday.

Mississippi State - 21 Alabama - 27

Dak Prescott has 36 school records but not at single win against Alabama. Dan Mullen has 53 wins as head coach of the Bulldogs but not one of those is against Alabama. It feels like we are due to pull this win off but I am afraid this game is going to be death by 1,000 cuts.
If we try to run the ball in the first half we are wasting downs. Alabama has the 5th best passing defense in the SEC allowing 190 yards a game. This isn't a weakness so to speak but its as close to a vulnerability as Bama has. If we have success passing it in the first half we can dabble in the run game in the second half. The short passing game with Fred Ross as the focal point is going to be how we move the chains and keep Henry on the sidelines. If we try and force the issue between the tackles get ready for many three and out possessions. The simple formula is move the chains with Ross and score the points with De'Runnya Wilson.

Alabama is going to slam Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake into you until they break you. As soon as you sell out to stop the bleeding they are going to try and hit Calvin Ridley behind your defense. There isn't much deception or misdirection to prepare for outside of the play action pass. If Alabama has to break out the trick plays that means the Bulldogs are in this ballgame.
On defense Alabama may be bringing the best front 7 they have ever had. It all starts with A'Shawn Robinson who is the best defensive lineman in the SEC. The former 5-star prospect from Texas is a 312 pound freak who has been able to dunk a basketball since 7th grade. He brings with him Jonathan Allen, Jarran Reed, Denzel Devall, Dillon Lee, Reuben Foster and the quarterback of their defense Reggie Ragland. Together this front seven represents the most dominant defensive unit in America. How banged up will they be from holding the best running back in America to just 1.6 yards per carry?

I hope I am wrong this week. I think the magic number for the Dawgs is Dak throwing for 350 yards. If he goes for 350+ I say Mississippi State wins. If he can get the ball to 6'5" De'Runnya Wilson over 5'10" Cyrus Jones and find the soft spots behind the aggressive Tide defense we have a chance. Mix in a few improvised runs that keep drives alive along with some timely turnovers and the upset could happen.

Travel safe to Starkville and be a part of what will be the largest crowd in school history.
‪#‎HailState‬
‪#‎ShowSomeTeeth‬


THIS IS IT.  LET'S DO THIS.  IN THE PLACE WHERE THE BATTLE BEGINS.

TEETH,

KHH


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